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A new model of individual opinion dynamics based on information and emotions |
Paweł Sobkowicz |
Nie afiliowany, Warszawa 02-777, Poland |
Abstract |
We present a new model of individual opinion changes dependent on the emotional state of interacting agents and their information about the issue in question [1]. The model is a simple, yet nontrivial and flexible representation of individual attitude dynamics that can be used for agent based simulations in a variety of social environments. The model is a discrete version of the cusp catastrophe model of opinion dynamics in which information is treated as the normal factor while emotional arousal (agitation level determining agent receptiveness and rationality) is treated as the splitting factor. Both variables determine the resulting agent opinion, which itself can be in favor of the studied position, against it, or neutral. The communication between the agents is via messages, so that the model is potentially applicable in a wide range of situations. The simplest version of the model uses fully deterministic microscopic dynamics, with predetermined transition table between the different agent states. Even such model shows a lot of similarity with real social situations, as well as phenomena interesting from the modeling point of view, for example the presence of metastable states. A more advanced version includes probabilistic approach to generation of agitated states when people of different opinions interact and a gradual decay of emotional arousal when there are no activities that stir the emotions. As an example of the model application, we study the dynamics of a set of agents in a simple, fully connected communication topology. Such choice allows to focus on the effects of the individual opinion dynamics, and to look for stable final distributions of agents with different emotions, information and opinions. Even for such simplified system, the model shows complex behavior, including phase transitions due to symmetry breaking by external propaganda. The model indicates that in certain communication environments (e.g. internet based communities) the emotional arousal resulting from exposure to contrarian views may effectively block opinion changes. This would induce the observed stability of opinions - despite the fact that the traditionally recognized mechanisms, such as selective exposure and focus on intra-group interactions are absent or negligible. Many discussion environments are actually based on the contacts between conflicted groups, yet there are no signs that discussions lead to opinion changes [2,3]. The model provides a psychologically plausible and mathematically treatable approach to this phenomenon. [1] Sobkowicz, P. Discrete Model of Opinion Changes Using Knowledge and Emotions as Control Variables PLoS ONE, 2012, 7, e44489 [2] Sobkowicz, P. & Sobkowicz, A. Properties of social network in an Internet political discussion forum Advances in Complex Systems, 2012, 15, 1250062 [3] Sobkowicz, P. & Sobkowicz, A. Two-Year Study of Emotion and Communication Patterns in a Highly Polarized Political Discussion Forum Social Science Computer Review, 2012, Online first, DOI: 10.1177/0894439312436512 |
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Presentation: Oral at CyberEmotions conference, by Paweł SobkowiczSee On-line Journal of CyberEmotions conference Submitted: 2012-10-29 09:21 Revised: 2012-10-29 09:21 |