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Hurst exponent as a tool of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market

Grzegorz A. Szulik 1Paweł Oświęcimka 2

1. Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie, Rakowicka 27, Kraków 31-510, Poland
2. Polish Academy of Sciences, Institute of Nuclear Physics (IFJ PAN), Radzikowskiego 152, Kraków 31-342, Poland

Abstract

Technical analysis gives us a class of investment strategies based on the analysis of trends of price time series and a multitude of indicators. There are economical theories which claim that these strategies cannot be profitable. However technical traders exist and they operate on different time scales. Why are they effective? The answer was given in 1990 by Lars Twede in “The Psychology of Finance” and is known as the idea of self-fulfilling prophecy. In our work we decided to focus on technical indicators. The main aim of the work was to investigate, if there are any connections between Hurst exponent and a few popular indicators used in technical analysis on the foreign exchange market and if Hurst exponent could be used as an indicator as well. We use different time scale to see if the effect of self-fulfilling prophecy depends also on the interval between data.

 

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Related papers

Presentation: Oral at 6 Ogólnopolskie Sympozjum "Fizyka w Ekonomii i Naukach Społecznych", by Grzegorz A. Szulik
See On-line Journal of 6 Ogólnopolskie Sympozjum "Fizyka w Ekonomii i Naukach Społecznych"

Submitted: 2012-01-21 22:24
Revised:   2012-01-21 22:24