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Long-Term macroeconometric model for the Polish Economy

Władysław Welfe 

Uniwersytet Łódzki, Wydział Ekonomiczno-Socjologiczny, P.O.W. 3/5, Łódź 90-255, Poland

Abstract

Development of market economies towards the economies based on knowledge implies the construction of new long-term macroeconometric models. The structure and use of the long-term W8D model  for Poland was shown. This is a complete model that explains not only production and the factors its growth but also final demand allowing for studies of potential disequilibria. It is closed by system of equations explaining prices, wages and financial flows. The simulation version is of medium-size including 235 equations, of which 111 are stochastic. They are mostly non-linear, dynamic and compose a simultaneous system.
The investment function estimates are shown. The  notion of extended production function and total factor productivity and their explanation are discussed in  detail showing the impacts of knowledge capital, including R&D and human capital.
The ex-ante multiplier analysis is used to study the economic mechanisms,  especially the role of investment in creating final demand and potential output. Its results are used in construction of long-term growth scenarios of the Polish economy up to the year 2030,  based on model simulations.

JEL C51, C52, E17, E22, 011, 040,047

 

Auxiliary resources (full texts, presentations, posters, etc.)
  1. FULLTEXT: Long-Term macroeconometric model for the Polish Economy, Microsoft Office Document, 0.3MB
 

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Presentation: Invited oral at First International Conference Quantitative Methods in Economics, Plenary session, by Władysław Welfe
See On-line Journal of First International Conference Quantitative Methods in Economics

Submitted: 2009-05-13 14:26
Revised:   2009-06-07 00:48