Important bilateral interdependencies  do exist between an overall economic situation and that prevailing in  stock markets. Impulses from stock exchange are being transmitted to real economy as effects of relative changes in the price of capital and income effects ^[1]. Relative changes in the price of capital may result directly from  a change in  the  price of  funds acquisition in the stock market and  indirectly from the change in credit worthiness of listed companies, while income effects are connected  to the stock market impact on consumption  level ^[2]. Of equal strength are impulses from the real economy into the stock and securities market transmitted as responses of stock market players to publications of   financial results of listed companies, macroeconomic characteristics ^[3] such as inflation rate, GDP, interest rates, exchange rate, budgetary deficit, public sector debt or unemployment rate etc. on the ongoing economic, fiscal, monetary, budgetary or industrial policy ^[4]. In this respect investors expectations regarding companies’ results, macroeconomic situation or directions of economic policy pursued by the central government are of importance.  These expectations are already being discounted much earlier in stock prices and thus stock indices should be ahead of macroeconomic changes. Changes of the stock exchange indices being in the view of the above an effect of an inflow/outflow of stock market investments turn into a signal for the increase /decrease of  real investment ^[5].

 ^[1] J. Fundowicz, B. Wyżnikiewicz: Fluktuacje koniunktury gospodarczej i giełdowej – perspektywa makroekonomiczna [w:] Mocek M. (edit): Diagnozowanie i prognozowanie koniunktury gospodarczej w Polsce. Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu, Katedra Badań Marketingowych, Poznań 2006

^[2] Ibidem

^[3] Ibidem

^[4] K. Jajuga: Podstawy inwestowania na giełdzie papierów wartościowych. Oficjalnie Wydawnictwo Giełdy papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie S. A., Warszawa 2006, pp. 102 – 121, 124

^[5] J. Fundowicz: Koniunktura giełdowa a koniunktura makroekonomiczna [w:] Piech K., Pangsy–Kania S. (edit.): Diagnozowanie koniunktury gospodarczej w Polsce, Dom Wydawniczy Elipsa, Warszawa 2003, p. 144.  

1. FULLTEXT: A Long- and short-term relationship between sectoral indexes and the WIG (Warsaw Stock Exchange Index), Microsoft Office Document, 0.2MB

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