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Origin of stylized facts in self-organizing agent based model

Valentina Alfi 1Matthieu Cristelli 1Luciano Pietronero 1,2Andrea Zaccaria 1

1. UNIVERSITA' DI ROMA LA SAPIENZA, P.le A. MORO 5, Roma 00185, Italy
2. Institute of Complex Systems, CNR (ISC), Via dei Taurini, 19, Roma 00185, Italy

Abstract

We discuss various properties of a new ABM which is able to reproduce the most common stylized facts (arbitrage, fat tails, volatility clustering). In addition the model can be generalized to consider the problem of non-stationarity and the self-organization towards the quasi-critical state which shows the stylized facts. The phase space of the agents' strategies is divided in fundamentalists (stibilizing) and chartists (destibilizing). The key point has been to have the simplest possible model which is able to refroduce the stylized facts and their self-organization. This has the advantage that it is possible to identify the precise mathematical origin of the stylized facts. Of course this extreme semplification lucks many elements of realism. Howeveer these can be now added in a controlled way and analyzed in detail. We show the main properties of this model which was originally introduced with a liner dynamics for the price. We then consider a more realistic multiplicative dynamics and study the specific properties of each case. We also introduce the concept of entropy for the various properties and characterize the nature of  the self-organized state in this respect.

 

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Related papers

Presentation: Poster at International Conference on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents 2008, by Valentina Alfi
See On-line Journal of International Conference on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents 2008

Submitted: 2008-05-09 20:36
Revised:   2009-06-07 00:48