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How much rationality is in inflation expectations? |
Marcin Pietrzak , Tomasz Kopczewski , Przemysław Kusztelak |
Warsaw University, Faculty of Economics (WNE UW), Długa 44/50, Warszawa 00-241, Poland |
Abstract |
In last decade inflation was treated as a disappearing economic phenomena. The economists believed that mechanism controlling inflation was discovered. Nowadays, rising inflation is unexpected surprise. This paper presents a theoretical and empirical evaluation of inflation expectations in case of heterogeneous agent approach. This seems to be an important factor in predetermining macroeconomic changes and influencing efficiency of monetary policies. We used experiment to check perceiving an inflation phenomena in three groups (economic students, analysts of banking sector and random control group) that differed in professional experience and theoretical knowledge about inflation. The main conclusion is that expectations are heterogeneous across those groups. A learning process that improves inflation forecasts was observed for two groups: students and analysts. In those groups major part of expectation was conformable with Klaus Adam’s restricted perception expectations. However the percentage of rational expectations was significantly higher in group of analysts. We observe that number of rational forecasts in groups of students and analysts was rising in time. It is a strong argument that a learning process influences changes in forming expectations. Banking sector analysts having wider and more consolidated knowledge about inflation and economic dependences surpassed students with accuracy of inflation predictions. The behavior of random control group was completely unpredictable and there was no evidence of any learning process. |
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Presentation: Oral at International Conference on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents 2008, by Marcin PietrzakSee On-line Journal of International Conference on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents 2008 Submitted: 2008-03-14 23:15 Revised: 2009-06-07 00:48 |