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Self-fulfillment expectations and self-destruction expectations in an artificial financial market

Honggang Li ,  Pan Gao 

Beijing Normal University, Xinjiekouwai St.19, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract

This paper presents an asset market model to exhibit the self-fulfillment expectations and self-destruction expectations in the artificial financial market. In our model, there are three forces to drive the asset price move: the first comes from extrinsic underlying factor, the second comes form transactions of regular traders, and the third comes from pattern traders. The three forces are reflected in an excess demand on the asset, and the regular traders are both assumed to behave as Lux model (T. Lux, J. Econ. Behav. Organization 33, 1998) in the following two sections. In the section about self-fulfillment expectations, we assume the intrinsic factor is a Gaussian stochastic variable, and the pattern traders trade on a conjecture price pattern (expectation). Without the pattern traders, we can see the asset price moves almost as a random walk. With the pattern traders, who believe and try to chase the unreal pattern, getting into the market, the asset price eventually reproduces the conjecture pattern. This is just the phenomena on self-fulfillment of expectations. Forming a contrast, in the section about self-destruction expectations, we assume the intrinsic factor is a deterministic process (such as a sine function of time) and the pattern traders just trade on the real price pattern (expectation). Without the pattern traders, a “revised” deterministic pattern can emerge from the market taken by regular traders. But with the pattern traders, who try to utilize the emerged pattern to make money, getting into the market, the asset price pattern gradually vanishes. This is just the phenomena on self-destruction of expectations. We hold that the self-fulfillment expectations or self-destruction expectations are fundamental features of real financial market, which either makes some pattern arise from market trade or makes the discovered pattern destroyed. This may lead to “local” predictability on asset price or “marginally” effective market.

 

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Related papers

Presentation: Oral at International Conference on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents 2008, by Honggang Li
See On-line Journal of International Conference on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents 2008

Submitted: 2008-03-14 15:41
Revised:   2009-06-07 00:48