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The Role of Expectations and Wages in Deflationary Recessions |
Luca Colombo , Gerd Weinrich |
Catholic University, Milano 20122, Italy |
Abstract |
In this paper we use a non-tâtonnement dynamic macroeconomic model to study the role of expectations and wages in the business cycle. Following a restrictive monetary shock, the economy may converge to a deflationary quasi-stationary Keynesian underemployment state. If consumers can be convinced to hold inflationary expectations, the economy recovers to full employment, but only if the recession is not too deep. In addition, and consistent with perfect foresight, there may be endogenous expectations-switching. If inflationary expectations are not sufficient to exit from the recession, imposing downward rigidity and upward flexibility of nominal wages helps to accomplish it. |
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Presentation: Oral at International Conference on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents 2008, by Luca ColomboSee On-line Journal of International Conference on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents 2008 Submitted: 2008-03-14 12:38 Revised: 2009-06-07 00:48 |