The purpose of this study is to examine how people’s distrust in public pension system and its propagation will effect on Japanese public pension system. We have explained about this theme using ABM and word-of-mouth communication(WMC)model in ESHIA 2006. However, our model was not exactly sufficient model to express the propagation of people’s distrust in public pension system.

  Therefore, we will focus on this theme in this study, again. A good place to start is to investigate people’s network(relationship). As the first step in our analysis, we have carefully examined a series of network theory and dynamic social impact theory(DSIT)[e.g. Latané(1981), Barabasi&Albert(1999)]. It was founded from our study that BA(Barabasi-Albert)model and DSIT model are superior to WMC model in terms of expression of people’s distrust in public pension system and its propagation. These articles have explained intricate web concerning about people’s relationships and pathway of their communication. Consequently, in order to put people’s distrust in public pension system and its propagation aptly, we incorporate these models into our model.

  The points of our new model are described below. Firstly, we incorporate the mechanism of Japanese public pension, which was revised in 2004, into our model. Secondly, we link each agent using BA model for expressing people’s relationships. Finally, we quote the model developed by Morio(2003) to put the transition process of public opinion. The propagation of people’s distrust in public pension system means the transition process of public opinion, in a way. His model seems most appropriate to express people’s attitude to the opinion of others. In his model, an agent’s opinion is affected by the other agents’ that have linkage to him(or her). However, it is not rapidly but non-linearly and gradually changed. For these reasons, we implement BA model and Morio model in order to express people’s relationships and the transition process of people’s opinion concerning about public pension system.

  As a result, a little over 40% agent does not come to pay pension premium by the propagation of distrust in public pension system. It is concluded that the propagation of people’s distrust in public pension system have a considerable impact on public pension system. So, it is needed for government to make policy not to spread its propagation.

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