Control illusion: When trader gets success repeatedly in his dealing, even if it is a chance result in truth, he makes the cause of success attribute to his ability, then he will have overconfidence. In this case, he will over dealings in quantity and perhaps too short decision in time.

Risk aversion theory: When trader gets success, he begins to try to avoid risk to save his profit. Consequently, he decreases amount of his dealings.

 We think there is a contradiction. We examine which theory influences dealings or both or neither, through human behavior examination.  Our experiment is as follows: 24 subjects were divided in two groups. “Success Controlled (SC) ”, and “Failure Controlled (FC) ”. On computer monitor, one line chart (past 10 days price) is displayed.  All subjects were required that they forecast the price will up or down. When the subject forecasts the price will up, computer program make next price up for SC subjects, and down for FC subjects . This program controlled trial repeated 5times, and after then, price decided only in random.

We observed that FC subjects decrease their dealing, and SC subjects didn’t increase nor decrease. We made a model of this behavior.

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