ࡱ> >bjbj4&Q ,""N"j"j"j"~"~"~"8" #~"~VF$F$F$F$r$a%8%% }}}}}}}>}j"%a%a%%%}j"j"F$r$h~)))%dj"F$j"r$})%})).oHsF$,ж=B1~")[q@}~~0~q\)ssVj"Mz%%)%%%%%}})%%%~%%%%%%%%%%%%% :Iwona Staniec, Edyta Marcinkiewicz, Filip Chybalski (Technical University of Lodz) Simulation of the amount of pension payments from the second pillar Abstract: In the paper it was analyzed how the capital gathered in the open pension funds (OPFs) depends on the nominal rate of return, and the value of monthly salary index in the enterprise sector as well as the average amount of fee paid by members of OPF. On this basis, the forecasts of the nominal rate of return and the salary index were made for the period 2009-2013 and the amounts of simulated payments from the second pillar for all OPFs in the years 2014-2024 were set. These pensions will be individual, calculated according to the tables of life expectancy, but the expected rate of return will not be able to exceed the technical rate fixed by the state. Introduction The introduction of pension reform considered that from 2009 apart from the benefits from social security (I pillar I) retired (according to their declaration made in 1999) will also be able to receive benefits from one of several open pension funds (OPF- II pillar). This new regulation on the capital pension was published on 24 December 2008 (it came into force on 8 January 2009) in the Official Journal of 21 November 2008 (O.J. No 228, item 1507). It specifies: types of cash benefits paid from the funds collected by open pension funds, called capital pensions; rules for obtaining the right to capital pension; rules and procedures for granting capital pensions; procedures for establishing the amount and payment of pensions. According to the law cited, capital pension from the founds accumulated in OPF is available in the following forms: periodic capital pension (for a member of the open pension fund up to the age of 65); life capital pension (for a member of the open pension fund from the age of 65). Periodic pension will be paid to a member of open pension fund until he/she is 65 years old. Before that time a member of the pension fund will have the full OPFs membership rights, including the ability to change the open pension fund, or the ability to transfer the funds gathered in OPF for the spouse or persons entitled in case of the death of a member. The source of pension will be funds accumulated in the account in the open pension fund, which will pay periodic capital pension. It will be the subject of annual adjustment according to the principles and procedures defined for a pension paid by the Social Insurance Institution. At the same time accumulated capital will continue to be invested by the open pension fund. When a OPFs member is 65 the amount of pension savings which remains on the account, plus gains on investments, will be used in the possible purchase of life-pension. This solution could take place no sooner than in 2014, which is related to the regulations concerning the retirement age. Assuming that by 2014 the pension will be paid periodically, the government has five years to prepare a good payout scheme. At present, the solution adopted is therefore very convenient, but only for politicians, since the members capital for the first five years collecting a pension, despite the absence of new contributions, will be fully exposed (up to 2014 years) on the investment risk. OPFs investment outcomes in 2008 showed how dangerous it is. The purpose of the deliberations is an attempt to draw attention to factors determining the amount of pension payable from the year 2014 from the second pillar pension system. The data that were the basis of such research were obtained from the website of the Financial Supervisory Commission (www.knf.gov.pl) and came from for the period August 1999 - December 2008. Statistical analysis of the capital accumulated in the open pension funds in the period August 1999 - December 2008 For the purpose of the analysis it was assumed that for each OPF in the period from the end of August 1999 (the date on which the OPFs accounts are given) to December 2008 , each month the amount of 100 PLN was received on a fund account. This amount of money was indexed using monthly salary index in the enterprise sector [compare Analysis ...., 2008]. The analysis shows that during the given period of time, each OPF account received 113 contributions, which gives the total amount of 15 026.31 PLN. Necessary monthly fees were charged from the contribution taking into account changes resulting from the length of time of being an OPF member. The remaining amount has been converted into account units according to their settlement on the last day of each month. Multiplying the number of units assembled by the participant throughout the period of investment by the value of the unit on the last day of December 2008, the value of a hypothetical account in each pension fund was received. Thus, the person paying since August 1999, the amount of 100 PLN (contribution from the gross monthly salary of 1,370 PLN) per month (taking into account the variability of monthly salary), in December 2008 he/she would have the capital in the open pension funds in the amount of: ING OFE 19 009,90 PLN (gaining 3 983,59 PLN) Pekao OFE 19 001,00 PLN (gaining 3 974,69 PLN) Generali OFE 18 966,10 PLN (gaining 3 939,79 PLN) OFE PZU ZBota JesieD 18 895,50 PLN (gaining 3 869,19 PLN) OFE Allianz Polska 18 892,50 PLN (gaining 3 866,19 PLN) AXA OFE 18 824,10 PLN (gaining 3 797,79 PLN) AIG OFE 18 698,80 PLN (gaining 3 672,49 PLN) Commercial Union OFE 18 690,90 PLN (gaining 3 664,59 PLN) OFE Warta 18 657,90 PLN (gaining 3 631,59 PLN) Nordea OFE 18 462,30 PLN (gaining 3 435,99 PLN) OFE Pocztylion 18 293,40 PLN (gaining 3 267,09 PLN) AEGON OFE 18 206,90 PLN (gaining 3 180,59 PLN) OFE Polsat 18 115,80 PLN (gaining 3 089,49 PLN) Bankowy OFE 17 953,90 PLN (gaining 2 927,59 PLN). On average, each OPF participant gathered 18 619.21 PLN (the difference between the maximum and minimum capital amounts is 1056 PLN), variability of capital measured using standard deviation is 340.33 PLN. Therefore, open pension funds are very homogeneous in terms of assembled capital, as the variability coefficient is 1.83%. The best ING OFE fund collected on the account the amount of 19 009.90 PLN, the weakest fund Bankowy OFE collected the capital of 17 953.90 PLN. In the next step, the profit obtained by each fund was analyzed. The variability coefficient was 9.15% (proving the homogeneity of the group). The average profit earned by OPFs was 3 593.20 PLN. In the analyzed period of time, nine OPFs developed earnings above average, including the highest profit earned by ING OFE (3 983.59 PLN), Pekao OFE (3 974.69 PLN) and Generali OFE (3 939.79 PLN). Five funds developed profits below average (2 927.59 PLN), including Bankowy OFE (2 927,59 PLN), OFE Polsat (3 089.49 PLN) and AEGON OFE (3 180.59 PLN). Its worth to mention that the funds developed the highest losses in 2008 because they invested the capital on the stock market (which in previous periods was the most profitable), and did not take very good times on the bond market. Choosing open pension fund it is worthwhile to draw attention to the results presented in the compiled rankings, especially due to the rates of return, to capture the trend that prevails in the results of the fund. In the analyzed period ING OFE obtained the highest rate of return of 126.51%. The lowest rate of return was obtained by OFE Bankowy (119.48%). Average rate of return of OPFs during the period is 123.91%, variability of rates measured using standard deviation is 2.26 percentage points. A year ago the management of pension funds expected that 2008 will be better than 2007, when the value of the units increased only by few percent. Unfortunately, in the case of OPFs year 2008 will go into history as a period when for the first time the returns of funds were negative, which was the result of large decreases on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, and collapse of the economic situation. OFE Allianz Polska reached the best rate of return in 2008 (but still negative) -10.8% and the worst was obtained by OFE Polsat -17.1%. Analyzing the rate of return during unfavorable economic situation we can easily see which of the open pension funds are well managed and well deal with the effects of financial crisis - they have the proper risk management systems. The example could be Pocztylion or Pekao, which had low notes in rankings at the beginning of their activity, but in years 2006-2007 they developed the highest profits, and the last year results show that Pocztylion can cope quite well with the impact of financial crisis, as in 2008 it reached 3rd place in rankings due to the rate of return (its rate of return was -11.5%) . Pekao OFE has had a worse outcome, because its rate of return for the year 2008 was -13.5% (which gives 12th place in rankings) [Staniec, 2008]. Cost saving in OPF appears to be another essential element to include in the analysis. This is an important parameter, because the more expensive a fund is, the less money remains on the client's account and is working on his/her pension. The system of gratification of the universal pension fund society, which manages OPF, is based primarily on two main charges: distribution fee and a fee for managing the assets of the fund. Until April 2004, OPFs competed with each other on the amount of commission from premiums. They established its height by themselves. Most reduced it over time, in which the client belonged to the OPF. The change of the regulation in force since 2004, identified the maximum limit of commission. Eventually, but no sooner than in January 2014, OPFs will not be permitted to take more than 3.5% of the money transferred to them from social insurance. Until that date, the maximum limit of fees is - from April 2004 to 2010 - 7%, from 2011 6.125%, from 2012 5.25% , from 2013 4.375%. Unfortunately, with this change of regulation, all open pension funds (except for Allianz Polska) established the amount of commission to maximum allowable level of 7%. In contrast, the fee for the management consists of two elements: fixed and variable. The fixed part cannot exceed 0.045% of the value of assets, while the limit of variable part is 0.005% of net assets per month. In this value the variable part may be taken only in the fund, which reached the highest rate of return in this period. The variable part of the management fee is not charged in the fund, which reached the lowest rate of return in this period. In other funds, this part of the fee is charged in proportion to the results achieved - the higher rate of return, the greater fee [Chybalski, Staniec, 2008]. The leader of the ranking, due to the height of the average commission is Allianz, which from several years charges a commission of 4%, OFE CU takes second place, as its customers after two years of belonging gain the right to 4% commission. The last factor taken into account in the analysis is the value of OPFs unit. We must recall that in 1999 all the OPFs began with the unit worth 10 PLN. At present (data at the end of December 2008) the unit costs from 22.74 PLN (OFE Pocztylion) to 25.80 PLN (ING OFE) - the spread in the value of the units proves the skills for increasing the capital of future pensioners, and hence the amount of future pension [Chybalski, 2008, pp 100-112]. In the next step it was examined (Spearman rank correlation coefficient was calculated), whether there are dependencies between: OPF capital and the nominal rate of return - the value of Spearman rang coefficient is 0.499, and its significance p = 0.0694, OPF capital and the average fee in open pension funds - the value of Spearman rang coefficient is -0.399, and its significance p = 0158, nominal rate of return and the average fee in open pension funds - the value of of Spearman rang coefficient is -0.115, and its significance p = 0697. These dependencies are also shown in Figure 1  Figure. 1. Relations between the capital gathered in the OPFs, the nominal rate of return, and the average amount of fee in OPF. Source: own calculation Analyzing the results we can conclude that a statistically significant relationship is between the capital gathered in OPF and the nominal rate of return for the period August 1999 - December 2008, therefore with the probability of 0.9306 we can assume that the increase of the nominal rate of return will cause the increase of the average capital accumulated in OPF. The relationships between the capital gathered in OPF and the average amount of fees, and a nominal rate of return and the average amount of fees, even though they are not statistically significant, indicate\ the direction of substantially justified changes, ie the growth of average capital accumulated in the OPF will decrease the value of the average fees charged by OPF, as well as the increase in the value of the nominal rate of return in OPF will decrease the value of the average fees charged by OPF. The analysis shows that choosing a pension fund we should first of all, keep in mind the long-term investment horizon, stability of open pension funds results and its dealing with the aftermath of the financial crisis - these issues are particularly important in view of the fact that the deposition of money for retirement is a regular investment. The amount of the payments from the second pillar pension system It should be noted that statistically nearly a 1/3 of men and 5% of women die before the retirement age and shall not use the accumulated capital. But now this is no longer a problem, since the law regulations permit to inherit capital. Due to the time of membership in OPF we can distinguish two phases: phase I covers the period of saving, at this stage we make strategic decisions how to invest the capital, where and how long. The amount of future pension depends on these decisions; phase II includes the collection of earned retirement capital - the form of payment may be the provision for life or the provision for the guaranteed period of payment. The risk may be associated with the fact that collected capital will not provide the desired standard of living. In accordance with the law, the primary provision obtained from the capital accumulated in OPFs will be life capital pension, offered by the pension institutions. This pension will be individual, calculated according to the tables of life expectancy, but the expected rate of return will not be able to exceed the technical rate fixed by the state. The provision will not be subject to indexation, and a pensioner will be able to expect a possible increase in the amount of pension by a part of the benefits earned by the pension institution [Kostrzewski, Bojanowski 2009, p. 26]. In the following analysis on the basis of simulation an attempt was made to estimate the amount of payments for the period 2014-2024 from the second pillar for each OPF, maintaining the stability of the results obtained. The simulation assumes that on the hypothetical account in each OPF in the period from the end of August 1999 to December 2013 an amount of 100 PLN is paid per month, indexed by monthly salary change in the enterprise sector. For the period 1999-2008 the real OPFs rates of return, and real index of monthly salary in the enterprise sector were adopted. As indicated earlier, the capital gathered in OFE substantially depends on the nominal rate of return. Therefore, on the basis of obtained results in the past, for years 2009-2013 forecasted rates of return were estimated as well as the monthly salary index in the enterprise sector. Based on the real value in the years 1999-2008 and projected ones for the years 2009-2013 the amounts of payments in the years 2014-2024 from the second pillar were estimated and grouped in Table 1 Table 1 The amounts of pension benefits paid from the second pillar for each OPF in the years 2014-2024 Year of payment20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024ING OFE260,19307,83357,26413,58461,61518,33586,72671,05767,41880,381024,37Pekao OFE223,52257,85291,79329,38358,47392,49433,21483,13538,74602,66683,77Generali OFE250,28294,31339,51390,66433,40483,72544,27618,77703,41802,16927,83OFE PZU ZBota JesieD241,78282,89324,67371,70410,28455,62510,08577,03652,71740,69852,55OFE Allianz Polska234,90273,53312,43355,97391,05432,19481,55542,15610,34689,31789,62AXA OFE232,22270,08308,10350,60384,67424,62472,55531,41597,57674,14771,42AIG OFE217,97251,16283,84319,99347,84380,42419,48467,41520,84582,28660,33Commercial Union OFE238,18278,55319,51365,59403,35447,74501,09566,71640,95727,29837,13OFE Warta233,70272,54311,73355,68391,30433,14483,40545,18614,88695,78798,67Nordea OFE230,96269,35308,05351,46386,66428,03477,75538,94608,02688,30790,44OFE Pocztylion212,71245,11276,96312,20339,37371,22409,45456,47508,98569,50646,47AEGON OFE209,91241,56272,57306,84333,10363,89400,85446,33497,08555,55629,94OFE Polsat238,72280,94324,17373,17414,28462,83521,42593,77676,36773,17896,73Bankowy OFE200,59229,71257,88288,85312,02339,21371,89412,16456,95508,45574,04Source: own calculation. Simulations showing the hypothetical value of the provision from the second pillar reflect best what pension the members of funds in retirement age will receive. As of today, ING OFE provides the highest payments to its members, and Bankowy OFE - from the start with the worst results of investment - does not allow its members to collect high amounts in old age. However, the amount of the payments from each OFE will depend on the profit earned by them in subsequent years (the change of the nominal rate of return significantly impact the value of the profits made, and hence the value of pension paid). On the basis of the simulation it can be seen that the average pension in 2014 from the second pillar will be 229.74 PLN and will grow slightly with each year, reaching in 2024 the value of 766.20 PLN. It means that the amount of provision paid from the second pillar is very low and it is necessary to have additional financial security for retirement age. Summary In the final phase of OPF evaluation the classification was made due to the analyzed factors, and on this basis using the Wards method for Minkowskis distance matrix. In order to obtain homogeneous groups the pruning coefficient was used. On its basis three groups of OPFs were distinguished, their names were adopted due to the results obtained by open pension funds. The distinguished three groups are: best funds: OFE ING, Generali OFE, OFE PZU ZBota JesieD, these funds invest well their capital and, above all, reach a stable performance throughout the period, and in the period of stock market downturn they had lower loss than other OPFs, average funds: Allianz Polska OFE, OFE AXA, AIG OFE, Commercial Union OFE, OFE Warta, Nordea OFE, Pekao OFE - funds which generate average profits but are characterized by the unstable rate of return, Worst funds: Polsat OFE, OFE Pocztylion, AEGON OFE, OFE Bankowy - funds that generate lowest profits and are characterized by very unstable rate of return, are suitable only for those who prefer a risk above all, with less regard for the safety of money held. Factors used in the analysis, such as capital accumulated in OPFs, the nominal rate of return, the amount of fees and simulated amount of the payments have helped to identify three - as far as possible - homogeneous groups of funds. References Analiza. Rozliczenie skBadek emerytalnych wpBaconych do ZUS i OFE za okres lipiec 1999-maj 2008, Ministerstwo Pracy i Polityki SpoBecznej Departament Analiz Ekonomicznych i Prognoz, Warszawa, November 2008. Chybalski F., Staniec I., Potencjalne i rzeczywiste czynniki konkurencyjno[ci na rynku OFE, opracowanie przygotowane w ramach projektu wBasnego, Adz 2008. Kostrzewski L., Bojanowski M. Emerytury w gruzach,  Gazeta Wyborcza from 14 January 2009, p. 26. Pelc P. O nadzorze na rynkiem emerytalnym,  Gazeta Ubezpieczeniowa from 2008-06-26. RzoDca W. 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$$da$gd!z$$ & Fdh[$\$^`a$gdG$ & F ^`a$gdGZZj[[[[*\x\\\\\\\\\\]:]B]\]p]]]],Ⱥnpٽynfh,;h,;6hsAh{bCJaJ hh{bhh{b6UhGh{b6CJaJhGh{bCJaJh?_CJaJhh{b6CJaJh{bCJaJh).h{bOJQJh?_OJQJh{b6OJQJh{bOJQJh,;CJaJh).h{b6CJaJhh{bCJaJ&tody symulacyjne w badaniu organizacji i w dydaktyce mened|erskiej. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki WrocBawskiej, WrocBaw 2008, pp. 43-61. Staniec I. Ryzyko inwestycyjne w OFE w czasie niekorzystniej koniunktury gieBdowej opracowanie przedstawione na seminarium "Rynek kapitaBowy a koniunktura gospodarcza" organizowanym w dniach 4-5 grudnia 2008 w Aodzi. Ustawa z dnia 28 sierpnia 1997 o organizacji i funkcjonowaniu funduszy emerytalnych (Dz. U. Nr 139, poz. 934). Ustawa z 21 listopada 2008 r. o emeryturach kapitaBowych (Dz. U. Nr 228, poz. 1507).  Research financed by the science found in the years 2007-2009 as research project.  P.Pelc O nadzorze na rynkiem emerytalnym,  Gazeta Ubezpieczeniowa from 2008-06-26  From the size of fees charged it depends how much money actually works for future pension.  IROS index (benchmark index of treasury bonds on CeTo) gained +3,98% during the fourth quarter of 2008.  Simulation is an approximation of the phenomenon using its model, which was created based on the analysis. Advantages and disadvantages of simulation are described in the work W. RzoDca Sukcesy w symulacji  wybrane aspekty w: Metody symulacyjne w badaniu organizacji i w dydaktyce mened|erskiej. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki WrocBawskiej, WrocBaw 2008, pp. 43-61.     LNPRTV^bdf˶mcXA,h?h?CJOJQJaJmH nHsH tHh?h?mH sH jh?0J&U$h!zh!zCJOJQJaJmH sH h!zh!zmH sH jh!z0J&U$h!zh:mCJOJQJaJmH sH h:mjh:m0J&U(h;)yh$CJOJPJQJaJnHtHh;)yh$mH sH jh$0J&Uh,;CJaJjrh0PhQ0<Uh,; hs&Gh,;248:<X^r~ʿqbqRqRqh21h t6CJOJQJaJh21h21CJOJQJaJh21h tCJOJQJaJh21hMACJOJQJ\aJ!hMACJOJQJ\aJmH sH 'hMAhMACJOJQJ\aJmH sH h 1dh tmH sH jh t0J&Uh?h?mH sH ,h?h?CJOJQJaJmH nHsH tH&h?CJOJQJaJmH nHsH tH  "$(*.046<>h,;CJaJjhQ0UhQ0h thMACJOJQJaJh tCJOJQJaJhGh tCJOJQJaJ&(,.248:<>$ & Fdh[$\$^`a$gdG dgdce 21h:p. 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