Agent-based modeling of the intention-behavior gap: The case of dynamic electricity tariffs

Karolina Ćwik ,  Rafał Weron ,  Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska ,  Katarzyna Maciejowska ,  Katarzyna B. Sznajd-Weron 

Wrocław University of Technology, Wybrzeże Wyspiańskiego, Wrocław 50-370, Poland

Abstract

Using an agent-based modeling approach we study the temporal dynamics of consumer opinions regarding switching to dynamic electricity tariffs and the actual decisions to switch. In our model the adoption of new dynamic tariffs is driven by the internal influence that comes from interactions between agents (e.g. word of mouth) and the external field, which describes marketing efforts (e.g. advertising, promotions, educational campaigns) and product features (potential savings, (dis)comfort of usage of new electricity tariffs). The way in which we define and model agents’ immunity to the social influence distinguishes our model from other approaches. With some probability of indifference p in each time step an agent can be indifferent. The parameters of the model and its opinion formation and decision making components are described in [1, 2]. Using Monte Carlo simulations we show that for high levels of indifference we obtain the empirically observed intention-behavior gap between opinions and decisions. On the other hand, for low levels of indifference and a sufficient level of advertising, the opinions and decisions are closely related. In the paper we discuss the steps that could be taken to reduce the high indifference level in the society and to narrow the intention-behavior gap. When customers engage more in the topic, the adoption of dynamic electricity tariffs will be much more likely. When the indifference level is finally reduced in the society, tariff pricing schemes and advertising will become the critical issue requiring our attention.

[1] A.Kowalska-Pyzalska, K.Maciejowska, K. Suszczyński, K. Sznajd-Weron, R. Weron (2014), Turning green: Agent-based modeling of the adoption of dynamic electricity tariffs. Energy Policy 71, pp.164-174

[2] P. Przybyła, K. Sznajd-Weron, R. Weron (2014), Diffusion of innovation within an agent-based model: Spinsons, independece and advertising. Advances in Complex Systems 17, 1450004

 

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Presentation: Oral at 8 Ogólnopolskie Sympozjum "Fizyka w Ekonomii i Naukach Społecznych", by Karolina Ćwik
See On-line Journal of 8 Ogólnopolskie Sympozjum "Fizyka w Ekonomii i Naukach Społecznych"

Submitted: 2015-09-02 11:26
Revised:   2015-09-03 14:01