Breakdown of metastable political duopoly due to asymmetry of emotions in partisan propaganda

Paweł Sobkowicz 

Nie afiliowany, Warszawa 02-777, Poland

Abstract

We present results of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) model, applied to a strongly polarized society. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities (supporting each of the opinions) of comparable size -- which corresponds to bipartisan split found in many real world communities. Spurred by the recent breakdown of such system, which existed in Poland for over 9 years, we extend the model by allowing a third opinion. We show that if the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the system may be ``invaded" by a newcomer third party very quickly -- in semi-quantitative agreement with the actual poll results in Poland in 2015.

 

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Presentation: Oral at 8 Ogólnopolskie Sympozjum "Fizyka w Ekonomii i Naukach Społecznych", by Paweł Sobkowicz
See On-line Journal of 8 Ogólnopolskie Sympozjum "Fizyka w Ekonomii i Naukach Społecznych"

Submitted: 2015-08-05 10:44
Revised:   2015-08-05 10:44