Structural Sustainability of the Polish Trade System

Paweł Fiedor 

UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN (UCT), RODENBOSCH, CAPE TOWN, CAPE TOWN 7701, South Africa

Abstract

A couple of high quality Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) databases have been rendered available to the academia and industry within the last five years. These databases contain information of utmost relevance to driving macroeconomic policies in a world where consumption and production are increasingly spatially separated. Most of the studies based on these databases have been concentrated on very specific problems, and based on a microeconomic perspective. These analyses investigated such problems as the carbon, employment, or material footprints of nations, the international trade of scarce water, or the fragmentation of international trade. Analyses of the robustness of the supply system as a whole are missing however, in strong contrast with a wide variety (similarity-based networks, agent-based models, etc.) of network analyses inquiring into the resilience of interbank or financial markets. Fortunately, we may use the Input-Output tables to represent the trade system as a flow network in a natural way, and use information-theoretic approach to address growth and development of such a system from a network perspective, using the framework known as the ecological network analysis. The IO tables represent flows of products in terms of money, and as such can be naturally transformed into flow networks. We perform an analysis of the development, robustness, and structural sustainability of the Polish trade system based on National Input-Output tables (in current prices) for Poland for the years between 1995 and 2011. As such, we are also able to comment on the changes of the studied characteristics over the years. Further, we compare the results with the results obtained for the global supply system based on the Multi-Region Input-Output tables. We find the Polish supply system to be much less organised than the global supply system. We also quantify the effect of the 2008 financial crisis on the size and organisation of the trade system in Poland.

 

Presentation: Oral at 8 Ogólnopolskie Sympozjum "Fizyka w Ekonomii i Naukach Społecznych", by Paweł Fiedor
See On-line Journal of 8 Ogólnopolskie Sympozjum "Fizyka w Ekonomii i Naukach Społecznych"

Submitted: 2015-07-07 20:07
Revised:   2015-07-07 21:16