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Boosting under quantile regression – CAN we USE IT FOR market risk evaluation?

Katarzyna Bień-Barkowska 

Warsaw School of Economics, Al. Niepodległości 162, Warsaw 02-554, Poland
Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP), Świętokrzyska, Warszawa 00-919, Poland

Abstract

We consider boosting, i.e. one of popular statistical machine-learning meta-algorithms, as a possible tool for combining individual volatility estimates under a quantile regression (QR) framework. Short empirical exercise was carried out for the S&P500 daily return series in the period of 2004-2009. Our initial findings show that this novel approach is very promising and the in-sample goodness-of-fit of the QR model is very good. However much further research should be conducted as far as the out-of-sample quality of conditional quantile predictions is concerned.

 

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Related papers

Presentation: Oral at Current Economic and Social Topics CEST2013, Symposium on Financial Market Analysis, by Katarzyna Bień-Barkowska
See On-line Journal of Current Economic and Social Topics CEST2013

Submitted: 2014-02-25 11:47
Revised:   2014-02-25 19:49