The influence of time delay in information flow on the economy system evolution.

Janusz Miśkiewicz 

Wrocław University, Institute of Theoretical Physics (IFT UWr), pl. Maksa Borna 9, Wrocław 50-205, Poland

Abstract
The basic task of a company managements is to take decisions. The typical elements of the decision process are the knowledge about the system state and the understanding the laws governing the system. Unfortunately neither the state nor laws are fully known.
We have also to consider the fact that the acquiring information in economic resemble the meteorology problems rather than a typical physical measurement, where we can repeat experiments and obtain the information in real time. In economy the measurements performed on a global scale are first of all expensive, secondary gathering the data and processing it requires some time. Therefore the information about economy systems has two important features:
  • at the moment of announcement the information has some time delay and describes the system in some past,
  • the measurement is repeated in some intervals, therefore the information about the system should be considered as a discrete set rather than continuous.

The time delay problem was investigated in the case of spacial evolution of the homogeneous and heterogeneous economy systems. In both cases the delay flow influenced significantly the evolution of the system leading to oscillations or instability resulting in crashes of the system. In the case of heterogeneous system was able to survive even in the case of long time delay, because the crashes occurred only locally and the system was able to recover since the abandoned areas were inhabited by neighbouring companies. In this case the time delay leads to oscillation of the company concentration, which can be interpreted as economic cycles.
Besides global economy also the stock market case was considered. Usually the stock market is considered as a system with short or even zero time delay, because the information about the price is known instantaneously. However the market is coupled to an economy and these two systems interacts. In the study we consider the influence of the time delay on the system properties.

 

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Presentation: Oral at 4 Ogólnopolskie Sympozjum "Fizyka w Ekonomii i Naukach Społecznych", by Janusz Miśkiewicz
See On-line Journal of 4 Ogólnopolskie Sympozjum "Fizyka w Ekonomii i Naukach Społecznych"

Submitted: 2009-03-10 23:50
Revised:   2009-06-07 00:48