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Time correlations in currency exchange rates

Paweł Oświęcimka 1Stanisław Drożdż 1,2Jarosław Kwapień 1

1. Polish Academy of Sciences, Institute of Nuclear Physics (IFJ PAN), Radzikowskiego 152, Kraków 31-342, Poland
2. University of Rzeszów, Institute of Physics, Department of Complex Systems, Rejtana 16, Rzeszów 35-310, Poland

Abstract

The Foreign Exchange market (FX), with its daily volume of trillions of USD is the world's biggest market. This market gathers international institutions participating in currency exchange transactions across the world. In connection with the 24/7 trading, FX is also much more effective and liquid than other speculative markets. A significance of this market (an example of globalization) is even more important, since it became an indicator of a condition of the world's economy.
From a physicist's viewpoint FX is a complex system with non-trivial time dependences. The FX effectiveness is ensured by the correlations between exchange rates known as the triangular arbitrage. It is possible only on small time scales and disappears immediately after taking advantage of inconsistent crossrates by the traders. To quantify such correlations we employed the multifractal analysis measuring nonlinear features of time series, in particular their multifractal spectra. Especially interesting is a relation between the fractal properties of the exchange rates remaining in the triangular dependency. The resulting scale free statistics gives us information about complex interactions in FX.

 

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Related papers

Presentation: Poster at International Conference on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents 2008, by Paweł Oświęcimka
See On-line Journal of International Conference on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents 2008

Submitted: 2008-04-04 14:49
Revised:   2009-06-07 00:48