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Self Organised Criticality in an Accident and Emergency Department

Geoff Rodgers 1Alexander Hellervik Bernard Kujawski Terry Young 

1. Brunel University, Kingston Lane, Uxbridge UB83PH, United Kingdom

Abstract

We present an analysis of one years' worth of empirical data on the arrival and discharge times at a UK Accident and Emergency (A&E) department. We find that discharges rates vary slightly with the workload and that the distribution of the length of stay has a fat tail. A sand pile model is considered to show that the A&E department is a self-organised system, where the department stuff manage their work time to cope with the department's occupancy. We use in our model a variable input space to mimic the queuing discipline related to different cases of accidents found in the department. The input space is defined by two parameters; its size sxs and the distance m from two nearest edges. We show for the length of stay distribution the transition from power law to Poissonian like curve while s or m are increased from s=1 and m=0.

 

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Presentation: Oral at International Conference on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents 2008, by Geoff Rodgers
See On-line Journal of International Conference on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents 2008

Submitted: 2008-03-14 13:22
Revised:   2009-06-07 00:48