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Analyzing the Influence of Overconfident Investors on Financial Markets

Hiroshi Takahashi 1Takao Terano 2

1. Okayama University, Graduate school of Humanities and Social Sciences, Tsuhima-naka, 3-1-1, Okayama 700-8530, Japan
2. Tokyo Institute of Technology, Nagatsuda-Cho 4259,Midori-ku, Yokohama, Yokohama 226-8502, Japan

Abstract

In recent years, there has been rising interest in a field called behavioral finance which incorporates psychological methods in analyzing investor behavior. However, there is also criticism that most such arguments in behavioral finance are simply ad hoc, applying decision making bias exogenously, and only introducing decision making bias conveniently in order to explain certain phenomenon in the financial market.

With such underlying arguments, this analysis aims to show that decision making bias discussed in financial economics appears in a bottom-up fashion in the financial market. Above all, this research focuses on overconfident decision making which has been under the spotlight in recent years.

To discuss the problem, we employ agent-based modeling. In this research, we construct artificial stock market that contains several types of investors: fundamentalists and non-fundamentalists.

As a result of intensive analysis, we find that overconfident investors are generated in a bottom-up fashion in the market. Furthermore, we also find that overconfident investors have the ability to contribute to market efficiency.

 

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Presentation: Poster at International Conference on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents 2008, by Hiroshi Takahashi
See On-line Journal of International Conference on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents 2008

Submitted: 2008-03-13 09:51
Revised:   2009-06-07 00:48